US Open 2026: Four second-round matches to watch – Where data reveals the truth

People worship the commentary of legends; I see a wrong number. When Novak Djokovic fell in the first round, the tennis world was shaken. But for me, that moment was not a shock – it was a reminder that at Flushing Meadows, no one is immune to statistics. On September 1, relentless rain interrupted several matches, pushing the fourth day of the 2026 US Open into a packed schedule: 14 unfinished first-round matches and 32 second-round matches. With many quality players losing their seeding due to recurring injuries, the second round promises fierce battles that rankings cannot fully reflect. Let's start with Ben Shelton. He started slowly against Tallon Griekspoor in the first round, but his powerful serve and aggressive baseline game have always made him a difficult opponent in New York. Facing him is Hubert Hurkacz – the Pole who just returned to the top 50 with confidence after defeating Damir Dzumhur. Both possess big serves, but the question lies in fitness. Hurkacz has struggled with injuries, and if the match extends, the advantage shifts to the American. My prediction: Shelton wins in five sets – but don't rush to trust intuition; look at the serve trajectory and points-won percentage in the fourth and fifth sets. Felix Auger-Aliassime, the third seed, faces Karen Khachanov in one of the most balanced matches of the second round. The Canadian was not at his best in the first round, dropping a set to Rinky Hijikata, but his 17 aces offer encouragement. He needs to improve his break point conversion and second-serve effectiveness against a dangerous opponent. Khachanov has big-stage experience, reaching the 2026 US Open semifinals, but has never progressed beyond the second round in New York since. The Russian's recent form has been inconsistent, but his power and ability to strike through opponents could make this a difficult night for Auger-Aliassime. I lean toward Khachanov in five sets – because the data on his return-of-serve win percentage against one-handed backhands is something rankings cannot show. Carlos Alcaraz continues his title defense. He returned impressively against Roman Safiullin, but Jaime Faria could be a sterner test if he carries confidence from a grueling five-set victory over Jenson Brooksby. Alcaraz is the clear favorite, but his lack of match practice could give the Portuguese hope. I predict Alcaraz wins in five sets – but watch the third set, where lack of rhythm often shows most clearly. And then there's the unmissable match: Gael Monfils, 40, in his farewell year, facing local hope Learner Tien. Monfils' performance against Adolfo Daniel Vallejos Alvarez in the first round was breathtaking – his shots combined with unique celebrations changed the atmosphere in a way only the Frenchman can. But Tien, the 14th seed, is no easy opponent. He comfortably defeated Nuno Borges in the first round. While Monfils will use his long levers to exploit advantages, Tien's freshness and endurance will help him survive at his home Grand Slam. Prediction: Tien wins in five sets. The door of the 2026 Russia locker room closed, but I left my glasses in the crack. From the stands, I see what male reporters miss: small changes in movement, moments of hesitation before serving. At this year's US Open, watch Hurkacz's body language in the fourth set, how Khachanov adjusts his return position after failed break points, and whether Alcaraz maintains tactical patience when trailing. These are data points not in official statistics, but they tell the real story. The transfer market moves on rumors, but I trust spreadsheets over price tags. In tennis, it's the same. Fans worship reputation, but I look at numbers. And the numbers are saying: the second round of the 2026 US Open is not for the faint-hearted. It's for those who know that every set is a piece of data, every shot is a variable, and no one – not even legends – is immune to the truth of statistics.